In March, Equifax’s VP of Data and Analytics Bill Johnston reported on the consumer credit trends we observed in the last quarter of 2018 (see press release and whitepaper). “As we expected, the worm is turning in the Canadian credit market. Bankruptcies were up 15 per cent in the last half of 2018 and the small increase in delinquency rates mask some underlying weakness. Rising delinquency is likely to become the norm in 2019.”
Now, Bill says that analysis of Q1 2019 shows “the worm is still wiggling. Consumers were opening fewer new credit products in early 2019, but they certainly weren’t curtailing the use of their existing credit.” Consumers are still piling on debt, the shift to installment loans is keeping growth high in non-mortgage debt, and stress tests are putting the breaks on mortgage growth.